This chart shows the average fourth-quarter return for the S&P 500 since 1950, grouped by year within the four-year presidential election cycle.
Average Q4 returns have been positive in every stage of the cycle. Midterm years have historically delivered the strongest fourth quarters, while election years have been the softest.
Why It Matters Now: Seasonal patterns like this can help advisors set context with clients heading into the final stretch of the year. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the chart shows that the fourth quarter has historically been a favorable period for the S&P 500 across the election cycle.
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