The Stenger Report - 9/28/26
Equity indices generally rallied during a choppy trading week (Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow positive; Russell 2000 negative). For the technology bulls, AMD and Intel were up on an AI infrastructure rebound and Meta rose on its monetization narrative via its Muse AI assistant (NASDAQ: AMD, INTC and META, respectively). On the bear side, Oracle’s New Mexico debacle highlighted execution risk for individual names, where their 2.5 GW data center faces serious delays (NYSE: ORCL). Oil spot prices remained elevated, though retreated from >$100/bbl earlier this month, and will likely carry a sustained supply reliability premium. Treasury yields continued to march upwards, with the 10-year closing the week at 5.17% and 30-year at 5.49%. We see these yields having room to run up to PCE, which we discussed in our report on the most recent Fed rate hike here (9/16/26) Our View on the Fed Rate Hike — Stenger Family Office.
Last week, AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) crossed over $1T in market cap, becoming just the 13th company to attain this level on the U.S. company exchanges. Although AMD dipped below this mark during Monday’s open, history and behavioral economics favor AMD’s run going forward. Historically, only one company has dropped out of the $1T club after joining (Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), joined Feb’26 and dropped May’26). For investors and the financial media, this valuation creates a highly visible and select club. A “Too Big to Fail” or “Platform” narrative may get attached to these names, even if independent from underlying fundamentals. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) is ~$900B market cap, head and shoulders above its industry peers, and could be the first bank in the world to reach $1T.
For our equity portfolio construction, we see companies with eye-watering market caps driving index concentration. Even so, at Stenger Family Office we apply the same diligence framework for estimating future earnings from past market winners.
Total returns presented; Multi-year periods are annualized; Heatmap shows relative timeframe performance across all assets. Data from sources is deemed to be reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As of 9/28/26.
Nick Stenger
Chief Executive Officer
Financial Advisor
Jerry Goeden, CPA, CFA
Senior Vice President
Portfolio Manager
Financial Advisor in Chicago, IL
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